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Post by paddybarry on Feb 27, 2008 19:58:17 GMT
well less than 2 weeks to the greatest show on earth. anyway will give my opinion of the main championship races.
Supreme novices- overall the novices this year seem quite disappointing both hurdlers and chasers alike. i dont think the english have much to offer here. obviously rippling ring, sentry duty and kyperkim must be respected but i think the irish will win this. i think the likliest winner is muirhead of noel meade. good to see him bang in the winners again and the break may prove to be a goodsend. cork allstar represents very poor value and simply he cannot jump despite his obvious class. think captain cee bee is overhype and on a line through jered muirhead has his beated. one english horse that i hope would be a serious contender was striking article, the former irish bumper winner noe with howard johnson. he ran last weekend at new, and was disappointing but had a setback prior to run and everything that could go wrong for him did. i would rank him as the best outsider should he get in.
2pts muirhead
1pt ew striking article
Arkle - noland has no chance in this in my opinion. i will be place laying him on the machine. he is not pacy enough and needs cut to be seen at his best. i believe that clopf represents huge value here. a grade won winner over hurdles won will love the good ground on day one. he would have bolted up lto but for overpeeking on landing, form got a boast last weekend with maralan winning grade 2 at naas. people argue that he wont get up the hill and that he is a doubtful stayer but that is rubbish. no one would have argued that at the end of last year after grade 1 win at punc. i feel that he is being trained to peak in 2 weeks time and has run accordingly this year.
4pts win clopf
Champion hurdle - very hard race to weight up as the main players hav'nt run against each other so no lateral form to judge. big fan of sizing and landed me a nice touch at in irish champion hurdle. however i feel that he is a shocking price and fear that his jumping (2 big) on fast ground will find him out in the pace of champion hurdle. thus i will be place laying him. i think the race with osana setting a decent pace and a frontrunner that cannot be ignored will set the race up for the dog aka harcibald. without doubt the most talented 2 mile hurdler in the race.
1pt harcibald.
Sun alliance chase - again a very poor race on paper. having said that i am very keen on air force one of charlie mann who finished 2d to wichita lineman in 3 mile novice hurdle last year. i see him reversing form with albertas run who had the run of the race lto.
3pts air force one.
ballymore properties - could be the best of the novice championship races at the festival. english challenge looks to be headed up by nicky hendersons aingle dor and alan kings group captain who both command seriou respect. the irsh will look to paddytheplaster and trafford lad. to be honest this is a race i find very hard to weight up but would side with aigle dor had he has cd form and was very classy on flat in france.
2 pts win aigle dor
champion chase - i think the nichols pair can be taken on. i think twist magic will struggle to get up the hill and seems to me more of a aintree horse. master minded has fallen a number of times already and fear that his inexperience may catch him out again in championship battle. i like vpu of alan king who is reigning cahm and won arkle year before. should get his conditions again and is deffinitely a spring horse. looks an ew bet to nothing if ever there was one.
3pts vpu
ryanair - rumours abound that mossbank will go for gold cup. this race looks like cutting up quite a lot and will be a weaker renewal. cant have our vic who has never won at the festival. providing ground is not fast the listener is the 1 they all have to beat. he won the dipper over cd as a novice on good to soft. billyvoddin who ran a great race last year would be best of outsiders. i would imagine that dont push it will go for racing post plate to exploit his handicap mark.
2pts the listener
world hurdle - inglis drever wins his 3rd and breaks all the stat bar a fall. heads and shoudlers ahead of the rest. not a play for me at the price though.
Triumph - franchoek is a worthy favourite and has looked streets ahead of the rest this year. connections have a great record in the race. however i think there is somevalue to be found elsewhere and have being very impressed with nicky hendersons binoculor who is also carrying jps silks. of the irish won in the dark and silverbound may represent ew value
1pt ew binocular and won in the dark
gold cup - simply put a two horse race but cant see kauto star beaten if he stays up. without doubt the best chaser of my generation and a true champion. again i will probably just lay denman at the prices.
gold luck to all
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Post by David Trimble on Feb 27, 2008 22:19:33 GMT
Must say I'm distinctly underwhelmed by it all this year, Franchoek is my banker
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Post by George T Richardson III on Feb 28, 2008 9:02:51 GMT
I was at a preview night last night and Mick Fitzgerald was very sweet on Aigle Dor. Not very positive to Air Force One.
I agree with David Trimble that Franchoek could be the banker.
Inglis Drever would be a cert but a few horses sick in Howard Johnsons yard which isn't good. Don't back him now and see how his horses run earlier in the week.
Denman would be my horse for the Gold Cup. Mossbank would be a great e/w bet if he runs in it.
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Post by vinegarhill on Feb 28, 2008 9:07:22 GMT
 Cheltenham Preview night tonight in the Goat Grill. All proceeds go to underage hurling and football in Wexford. An Excellent night last year. |
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Post by forkhandles on Feb 28, 2008 9:33:09 GMT
well less than 2 weeks to the greatest show on earth. anyway will give my opinion of the main championship races. Supreme novices- overall the novices this year seem quite disappointing both hurdlers and chasers alike. i dont think the english have much to offer here. obviously rippling ring, sentry duty and kyperkim must be respected but i think the irish will win this. i think the likliest winner is muirhead of noel meade. good to see him bang in the winners again and the break may prove to be a goodsend. cork allstar represents very poor value and simply he cannot jump despite his obvious class. think captain cee bee is overhype and on a line through jered muirhead has his beated. one english horse that i hope would be a serious contender was striking article, the former irish bumper winner noe with howard johnson. he ran last weekend at new, and was disappointing but had a setback prior to run and everything that could go wrong for him did. i would rank him as the best outsider should he get in. 2pts muirhead 1pt ew striking article Arkle - noland has no chance in this in my opinion. i will be place laying him on the machine. he is not pacy enough and needs cut to be seen at his best. i believe that clopf represents huge value here. a grade won winner over hurdles won will love the good ground on day one. he would have bolted up lto but for overpeeking on landing, form got a boast last weekend with maralan winning grade 2 at naas. people argue that he wont get up the hill and that he is a doubtful stayer but that is rubbish. no one would have argued that at the end of last year after grade 1 win at punc. i feel that he is being trained to peak in 2 weeks time and has run accordingly this year. 4pts win clopf Champion hurdle - very hard race to weight up as the main players hav'nt run against each other so no lateral form to judge. big fan of sizing and landed me a nice touch at in irish champion hurdle. however i feel that he is a shocking price and fear that his jumping (2 big) on fast ground will find him out in the pace of champion hurdle. thus i will be place laying him. i think the race with osana setting a decent pace and a frontrunner that cannot be ignored will set the race up for the dog aka harcibald. without doubt the most talented 2 mile hurdler in the race. 1pt harcibald. Sun alliance chase - again a very poor race on paper. having said that i am very keen on air force one of charlie mann who finished 2d to wichita lineman in 3 mile novice hurdle last year. i see him reversing form with albertas run who had the run of the race lto. 3pts air force one. ballymore properties - could be the best of the novice championship races at the festival. english challenge looks to be headed up by nicky hendersons aingle dor and alan kings group captain who both command seriou respect. the irsh will look to paddytheplaster and trafford lad. to be honest this is a race i find very hard to weight up but would side with aigle dor had he has cd form and was very classy on flat in france. 2 pts win aigle dor champion chase - i think the nichols pair can be taken on. i think twist magic will struggle to get up the hill and seems to me more of a aintree horse. master minded has fallen a number of times already and fear that his inexperience may catch him out again in championship battle. i like vpu of alan king who is reigning cahm and won arkle year before. should get his conditions again and is deffinitely a spring horse. looks an ew bet to nothing if ever there was one. 3pts vpu ryanair - rumours abound that mossbank will go for gold cup. this race looks like cutting up quite a lot and will be a weaker renewal. cant have our vic who has never won at the festival. providing ground is not fast the listener is the 1 they all have to beat. he won the dipper over cd as a novice on good to soft. billyvoddin who ran a great race last year would be best of outsiders. i would imagine that dont push it will go for racing post plate to exploit his handicap mark. 2pts the listener world hurdle - inglis drever wins his 3rd and breaks all the stat bar a fall. heads and shoudlers ahead of the rest. not a play for me at the price though. Triumph - franchoek is a worthy favourite and has looked streets ahead of the rest this year. connections have a great record in the race. however i think there is somevalue to be found elsewhere and have being very impressed with nicky hendersons binoculor who is also carrying jps silks. of the irish won in the dark and silverbound may represent ew value 1pt ew binocular and won in the dark gold cup - simply put a two horse race but cant see kauto star beaten if he stays up. without doubt the best chaser of my generation and a true champion. again i will probably just lay denman at the prices. gold luck to all Very interesting Paddy, thanks very much. I note you're tipping 2 of Meade's on Day 1 - he's won two races ever (Sausalito & Nicanor) - I doubt if he's gonna double his tally in one hour after the winter he's had. Supreme - Nothing jumps out atthis one. There still might be a bit of value there for 3 in particular. Mullins 543 looks interesting, was unlucky in running in the bumper last year, and was impressive in his prep run and is a bit of value at 12 to 1. Nigel Twiston Davies Pigeon Island's thrashing of Numide etc last Saturday was impressive, except his run 17 times already this season, and thats generally far too exposed for a potential Supreme winner. Snap Tie is also an interesting one. Havent made up my mind on this one yet - will sway towards Oirland if it comes down to between 2. Arkle - I agree with you. Ordinary year I reckon. Clopf is the one to be on here. Very impressive in Navan (which is very like Cheltenham) until he fell at the last, and then Maralans victory last Sunday franked the form. At 12 to 1 on BF, he's good value. Cant be having Noland - very ordinary performance last Friday. CH - Fascinating race, and they'll go like the clappers. Osana and Katchit will string them out, but it'll set it up for those behind. Sizing is class, and the likely winner, but very short price. Sublimity has no seasonal form to justify his price. Harchi is growing old and cant get or keep his nose in front. I've gone in with a couple of speculative bets at big prices a while ago - The first is Catch Me, who has beaten Sizing in the past, and looks to be coming into some nice form. The other is Silent Oscar, who hasnt ran this season, but was in great form beating Macs Joy in Punchestown last spring. We'll see how it goes - it should be a crackin race as per usual. Ballymore - I like Paddy the Plasterers form, I have to say. He looks a good horse, and u can still get. I'd be concerned that not too many Cheltenham winners come out of Hennessy Day at Leopardstown for some reason. Aigle D'or and Group Captain are the big danger in my opinion (I have serious respect for Alan King at the fetival) as is Nicholls Breedsbreeze. RSA Chase - I've put a few speculative quid on Joe Lively in the hope that he'll bounce back to form at his favoured Cheltenham. Air Force One and Albertas Run are the ones to beat, and Battlecry will be an intersting outsider if he runs. Queen Mother - Cant look outside the top 4 in the mkt. Twist Magic, VPU, Masterminded & Tamarininbleu. I dont like twist, but the I cant split the other 3. There have been many dual QM winners in the last 20-30 years, which is a positive for Voy Pur (and indeed Newmill). Mastermindeds & Tamarinbleu are both in tremendous form though. As you say MM is a bit inexperienced. (I backed Another Promise before his prep run where he finished last, so what do I know!) Ryanair - Its Lantartique for me all the way. Backed him for last years Jewson and the Paddy Power in Novemeber and he didn't let me down. He's a Cheltenham horse. Too many doubts about the others and their targets - I hope Mossbank goes for the GC. Stayers Hurdle - Inglis's last hurrah, but you'll be lucky to get evens - a great horse. He even won the Cleeve when he couldnt even train. Blazing Bailey & Wichita aren't in his class. The irish could give it a good whirl with Hardy, Aitmatov & Kazal. Triumph - Franchoeks me banker of the meeting (King again). Binocular had to work very hard for victory last weekend in my opinion. Gold Cup - What a shootout. Where do you start to analyse these 2. Denman will try and stretch them out and kick and hope that he's sufficiently ahead by the 3rd last not to get caught. But if Kaoto's within a couple of lengths he'll have him for speed (which I think he will). Really looking forward to this one - I hope Kicking King runs a great race, and I have a small amount on him at a big price so I dont miss out on the craic. Knowhere looks most likely to get in on a place. Obviously haven't all my form researched - have a lot of study to do in the next fortnite, but really looking forward to it as usual. Must discuss the handicaps closer to the time. Good luck with ye're bets. |
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Post by spanky on Feb 28, 2008 10:42:31 GMT
some stuff. going over on the tuesday. i'd say Kauto Star will win it
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Post by tworunnyeggs on Feb 28, 2008 11:50:23 GMT
Betting interest in the Cheltenham Festival's ultra-competitive handicaps looks set to step up a gear following the publication of the weights for the 10 contests at a special event at Cheltenham Racecourse.
The David Pipe-trained An Accordion, ante-post favourite for the William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase, has been allotted 10-8 while the 2007 winner Joes Edge has 10-2, 4lb less than he carried to victory last year.
The Enda Bolger-trained Heads Onthe Ground has been given 11-12 in the BGC Handicap Chase over Cheltenham's cross-country course, having carried just 10-2 to victory last year.
There are 56 in the handicap for what promises to be a hotly-contested renewal of the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle.
Psycho, prominent in the ante-post markets for the Coral Cup, currently sits 5lb out of the weights in the two-mile-five-furlong handicap.
Tony Martin's charge caught the eye when falling at the last with a race at his mercy earlier in the month and has been allotted 9-9.
The high-class Lough Derg from the Pipe yard has 11-12 in the event, 9lb clear of the field while his stablemate Comply Or Die will carry a bumper 12-8 if he lines up in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase.
The Paul Nicholls-trained Ornais has 11-10 in the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase, 9lb more than any of his rivals while his stablemate Sporazene and the 2007 Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase winner L'Antartique share top billing in the Racing Post Plate on 11-12.
That is the same weight French raider Millenium Royal would shoulder if lining up in the Pertemps Final.
Ante-post favourite Kranji has 10-6 in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase while the final race of the 2008 Festival, the Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle, could see Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle possible Catch Me carry a top-weight of 11-12.
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Post by ZAFONIC on Feb 28, 2008 12:26:46 GMT
I have been going through the handicaps since they were released and have placed a few bets so far.
Kim Muir - I have backed Noir Et Vert at 20s and The Roney Man at 16s for this. Both look very well weighted although I am fearful that TRM will not get into the race. It is however NR/NB.
William Hill - I have backed Glasker Mill at 14s and Noir Et Vert at 33s (he is more likely t o go for Kim Muir).
Grand Annual - Glenfinn Captain looks chucked in and I have backed him at 25s. Kranji has a great chance but is short enough and looks a day of the race bet. I have to look at this race in further detail.
Jewson - First bet I have struck is on Finger on the Pulse at 14s.
I have also taken a look at the 3m novice hurdle and Cooldine is interesting at reasonable prices of around 14s.
Foxhunters - No decisions made on this yet but I have been given a reasonable word for Bon Accord who is about 16s.
I will come back with more later.
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Post by ohonoho on Feb 28, 2008 12:54:29 GMT
A few questions Zafonic.
Can't see how you think Glenfinn Captain is thrown in? Surely he hasn't ran a decent race i Quite a while.
Do you think Fingeronthepulse will handle the likely good ground.
I do like Glasker Mill. Was there in nov and was very impressed the way he came home.
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Post by ohonoho on Feb 28, 2008 12:56:21 GMT
Forgot to add, Are you not worried about N&V long lay off.
Cheers.
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Post by ZAFONIC on Feb 28, 2008 13:17:40 GMT
I am not in the least bit concerned about the layoff for NEV as he has been laid out for the festival and Ferdy is a master at getting them ready for the day.
Finger on the Pulse would have some ground concerns and my bet is relatively small as a result of this (in comparison to Kim Muir two).
Glenfinn runs off a mark 2lb lower than his last Irish rating and I don't think he has been busy all season long. Whether he is as good as he promised to be is open to debate but the price compensates, unlike Kranji who is short enough.
I also fancy Clopf but mainly to back pre-race and lay off at the 2nd last or between the last two, as there are still doubts as to whether he will get up the hill.
Cooldine looks a probablt non runner based on exchange prices, but it is nr/nb so no issues on that score.
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Post by George T Richardson III on Feb 28, 2008 13:31:01 GMT
Kazal in the World Hurdle anybody? Big prices considering NR/NB. Inglis will be a bigger price on the day so would wait to back it then when its known what the extent of the problems in HJ's yard.
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Post by ohonoho on Feb 28, 2008 13:45:03 GMT
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Post by ohonoho on Feb 28, 2008 13:48:06 GMT
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Post by ZAFONIC on Feb 28, 2008 14:00:47 GMT
Makes the Glenfinn price look all the better and I have backed him again.
I will trade him on the day, if he is much shorter or during the race if needs be. 25s is too big on a horse that has been cruising around under top weight all season.
The prices are shortening for the Kim Muir horses and I have enough of them at this stage.
Mr Strachan could jave reasonable prospects in the Jewson as well and is another than should tighten as the day approaches.
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